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The value of betting systems
Horse racing remains hugely popular in Britain and has been largely
unaffected by the recession, with racecourse attendances and betting
levels rising slightly last year. Successful professional gamblers rely
on a thorough knowledge of horse racing form and, in certain cases,
"inside" information when making their selections, but typical, everyday
punters often rely on betting systems.
A betting system is essentially a fixed set of rules that are applied
rigidly, requiring no brainpower on the part of the follower and therefore
making the selection process quick and easy. The exact set of rules
to be applied and their complexity vary from system to system, but many
punters find that making selections using a tried and tested system
is more profitable than doing so by any other method. Tried and tested
means a system that has been demonstrably profitable in the past; of
course, past performance is no guarantee of future success, but if a
system has produced regular profits over months, or preferably years,
there is every chance that it will continue to do so. Another benefit
of a betting system is that it introduces discipline to betting and
avoids haphazard bets, struck just for the sake of having an interest
in a race.
Betting systems can be simple or complicated, but the important points
for the punter are (i) that a betting system is profitable and (ii)
that a betting system suits his, or her, patterns of betting. There
is, for example, a system that suggests backing the second favourite
in selling or claiming races on Grade 1 racecourses, such as Ascot,
Epsom and Goodwood. The reason for this is that these races are something
of a rarity on these courses, so unaccustomed punters are likely to
bet heavily on the favourite, shortening its price, while the second
favourite drifts to a longer, profitable price. There is logic in this
approach, but it does require discipline to wait for these races on
Grade 1 courses, so may not be much use to punters who like to bet,
say, each and every Saturday afternoon.
Other systems which definitely work include financial systems, such
as arbitraging or hedging. As in the financial world, arbitraging involves
deciding whether the odds for a horse will increase or decrease before
the "off" and taking advantage of the odds on offer accordingly. If
arbitraging is performed correctly, by backing a horse at one price
and laying it at another, or vice versa depending on whether the price
is lengthening or shortening, it is possible to make a profit whether
the horse wins or loses.
By the same token, there are also some ancient, discredited betting
systems that are rediscovered from time to time. One of these is the
Martingale system, originally popular in 18th century France; the system,
such as it is, dictates that, whatever the selection method, bets should
be doubled after every loss. Theoretically, this would mean that a winner
would recover previous losses eventually, but the theory relies on an
infinite bank and is unsound in the real world.
Free racing tips can
be found in many daily newspapers, racing publications and on the Internet
and these can often from the basis of a successful betting system, based
on the fact that tipsters and industry experts often try harder to find
winners if they are on a winning run already.
